Differential and Time-Discrete SEIRS Models with Vaccination: Local Stability, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis Using Bulgarian COVID-19 Data
نویسندگان
چکیده
Bulgaria has the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rate in European Union and second-highest mortality world. That is why we think it important better to understand reason for this situation analyse development of disease over time. In paper, an extended time-dependent SEIRS model SEIRS-VB used investigate long-term behaviour epidemic. This includes vital dynamics. To apply some numerical simulation tools have been developed a family time-discrete variants are introduced. Suitable inverse problems identification parameters discrete models solved. A methodology proposed selecting from constructed family, which closest parameter values these differential model. validate studied models, Bulgarian data used. obtain all results mathematical analysis carried out illustrate biological properties SEIRS-VB, such as non-negativity, boundedness, existence, uniqueness. Using next-generation method, basic reproduction number associated with autonomous case defined. The local stability disease-free equilibrium point studied. Finally, sensitivity performed.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Mathematics
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2227-7390']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/math11102238